The space sector is anticipated to grow rapidly, but the industry lacks environmental regulation to mitigate potential negative impacts on climate and the ozone layer that protects us from the Sun’s harmful rays.

We used a 3D model that provides a comprehensive representation of the processes that occur in the atmosphere to determine the potential environmental harm of rocket launches and space debris on the atmosphere now and in a future with a formidable space tourism industry. We find that the greatest influence is changes in climate due to soot particles from rocket launches and degradation of ozone from air pollutants produced during rocket launches and when spent satellites and rocket bodies burn-up in the atmosphere above us. We also identify that a space tourism industry of routine launches by Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and SpaceX has the potential to undermine progress achieved by the Montreal Protocol in restoring upper stratospheric ozone.

Our speaker

Eloise Marais is an Associate Professor of Physical Geography at University College London. There she leads a research group that seeks to determine the influence of humans on the chemical composition of the atmosphere, air quality, public health, and climate. She obtained her PhD from Harvard University on a Fulbright scholarship and currently serves on the UK Air Quality Experts Panel, the US Health Effects Institute Global Health Oversight Committee, and the International GEOS-Chem Model Steering Committee. Her research group’s work has been cited in numerous policy documents, including the recent World Health Organization report on air quality guidelines, and her expertise is routinely sought by leading news agencies such as the BBC, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, CNBC, Reuters, Channel 4, and Sky News.