IPBES Nexus and Transformative Change Assessments

In Windhoek, Namibia in December 2024, the eleventh plenary meeting of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) agreed the text of the summaries for policy makers (SPMs) for two landmark reports: the Nexus Assessment and the Transformative Change Assessment. The full reports will be published later in 2025.

This agreement was the culmination of five years’ work by over 250 experts spanning the full range disciplines from over 50 countries, who pulled together the state of the science on what is known about the interactions between biodiversity, food, water, health and climate change, and how broader systems change can happen in ways that can enhance nature and its contributions to people.

An annex collating key messages and data gaps identified by the two assessments is available separately.

Background

IPBES was established by national governments in 2007 and now has almost 150 member countries. The next plenary meeting will be hosted by the UK, with a tentative date of January 2026. IPBES works to provide a ‘science-policy interface’ (SPI) that links research and other forms of knowledge to policy makers and practitioners, particularly in relation to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). It supports the work of the international community, producing a range of products and services including scientific assessments, and helps to build capacity among member countries, especially giving voice to indigenous and local communities.

To date, IPBES has produced twelve assessments on topics as diverse as invasive alien species, human-nature values, and a broad global assessment on the state of ecosystems. And in 2021, IPBES co-produced a report with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the links between climate change and biodiversity. IPBES is currently undertaking assessments of the links between biodiversity and business, approaches to monitoring biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people, and the state of and prospects for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In 2025, IPBES will commence an assessment of the links between biodiversity, connectivity and spatial planning and, towards the end of the year, will publish its assessment on biodiversity and business.

The Nexus Assessment

The Nexus Assessment – or to give it its full title ‘thematic assessment of the interlinkages among biodiversity, water, food and health’ - was set up in 2019 to explore how many of the issues we face are interconnected across multiple systems, and how we might address these in a more unified way. The assessment reviewed the existing literature and assembled data and information from diverse sources, generating new insights along the way.

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The key messages from the Nexus Assessment were:

Biodiversity is essential to human existence but is declining everywhere, driven by society’s actions across multiple sectors, thereby threatening our wellbeing. The indirect drivers of biodiversity loss have intensified the direct drivers
Continuing with business-as-usual, prioritising single, short-term issues, will make things worse, so we need joined-up approaches to manage ecosystems, reduce pollution, adopt healthy diets and address climate change
Governance is currently fragmented and the levels of finance are currently inadequate, though both can be strengthened and coordinated to adopt nexus approaches, creating synergies between issues, providing co-benefits for all nexus elements, and helping to achieve just and sustainable futures aligned with global policy frameworks
A ‘tunnel vision’ approach can lead to severe trade-offs among nexus elements. For example, focusing on food security will impact biodiversity, climate, and water. A lack of focus on human health when considering nexus elements in particular misses the significant co-benefits for greenhouse gas emissions, food security, and biodiversity conservation.

(Source: IPBES Nexus Assessment Figure SPM4.B. Shared under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International)

The Transformative Change Assessment

Accompanying the Nexus Assessment, IPBES also undertook what is referred to as the Transformative Change Assessment - its full title being the ‘thematic assessment of the underlying causes of biodiversity loss and the determinants of transformative change and options for achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity’.

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This assessment considered the range of factors that can lead to, enable, or constrain transformative change in society across a range of topics, drawing evidence from across the natural sciences, social sciences, arts, and humanities, as well as other forms of knowing the world, in particular, Indigenous and Local Knowledge (ILK). The Transformative Change Assessment concluded that:

Transformative change, involving fundamental, system-wide shifts in views, structures and practices, is necessary for a just and sustainable world for all, promoting equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action
Overcoming systemic, persistent and pervasive barriers to transformative change is essential, drawing on diverse insights and knowledge and working at and across all scales
This necessary transformative change is also possible
Five key strategies, working together, can help achieve transformative change for sustainable futures:

Conserving nature with approaches based on stewardship
Focusing on the key sectors heavily contributing to biodiversity loss, i.e. agriculture, fisheries, forestry, infrastructure, mining, fossil fuels
Transforming dominant economic and financial worldviews to prioritise nature and social equity
Involving diverse stakeholders in decision making within inclusive, accountable and adaptive governance systems
Shifting dominant societal values to recognise and prioritise human-nature interconnectedness

Knowledge and data gaps

Each assessment also identified a range of ‘data and knowledge gaps’ highlighting key areas for further study, assessment, data-gathering, and tool-development.

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Examples from the Nexus Assessment included understanding more about multiple interlinkages between components within the ‘nexus’ involving three or more elements and particularly involving heath; innovating and evaluating new approaches to governance within nexus approaches; quantifying the role of biodiversity in terms of ecosystem function and genetic diversity; and exploring the role of digital technologies (including AI and machine learning) within nexus approaches.

The Transformative Change Assessment, meanwhile, highlighted the need to develop new methods to monitor and evaluate transformative change across multiple interacting sectors; building capacities for transformative change including envisioning more equitable human-nature relationships; and enhancing the role that science and knowledge can play in concert with policy and practice.

Taken together, these two reports highlight that:

The key challenges of sustainability and our abilities to achieve transformation are inextricably linked, so that tackling issues singly is both inefficient and ineffective over the longer-term
Adopting joined-up (nexus) approaches to transform society’s systems of production and consumption is essential to achieve sustainable wellbeing for people and wider nature – it is challenging to do, but possible
Inclusive, adaptive governance working at and across geographic, temporal and institutional scales is vital to ensure just and fair transformation
Credible, relevant and legitimate scientific assessments and other forms of knowing must play crucial roles in working across the nexus and seeking to advance transformative change

What next?

For IES members and communities, these issues are central to our shared purpose and vision. The IES is focused on enabling and encouraging interdisciplinary, solution-oriented science and knowledge aimed at transforming systems and sectors towards more sustainable pathways.

Following publication of our most recent strategy in 2024, the IES will be taking forward further work exploring the deeper insights and knowledge gaps highlighted by the IPBES assessments to help strengthen our position on key priorities for sustainable wellbeing. For example, the latest edition of the Environmental Scientist focuses on the ways in which human health and the environment are inextricably linked, with analyses of air pollution, waste incineration, and health, gender and climate justice.

For further information, see the key messages and data gaps from the two assessment reports.

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