The argument for transformative change: IPCC’s AR6 Synthesis Report

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded it’s sixth assessment cycle last month with the publication of the AR6 Synthesis Report. This report brings together the findings of the preceding three reports:

The Working Group I contribution – The physical science basis
The Working Group II contribution – Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
The Working Group III contribution – Mitigation of climate change

The Synthesis Report contains no new science, but summarises the findings from the sixth assessment cycle of the IPCC in a more digestible format, including a dedicated summary for policy makers.

The next assessment cycle will not conclude until 2030, so these reports are incredibly important as they will inform and direct our action over the next five years; a period of time which will be pivotal in achieving climate ambitions.

This assessment cycle highlighted stark warnings that the window of action to keep warming in line with the Paris Agreement is fast closing – but it also contained the science and evidence we need to inform effective climate action and galvanise stakeholders towards implementing climate solutions.

To mark the end of this assessment cycle, this article explores some of the headline findings of the assessment cycle:

Accelerating ambition and action is crucial

In order to meet our obligations under the Paris Agreement we need to scale up both ambition and action. Limiting warming to this level will require “deep, rapid and sustained action” within the next decade. Policies and legislation around climate change have seen progression and heightened ambition since the last reporting cycle, however even if all countries’ climate targets under their nationally determined contributions are met, warming is still likely to exceed 1.5ºC in this century (current climate policies are projected to increase global warming by 3.2ºC by 2100).

This means that NDCs must ramp up significantly to fit with a 1.5ºC scenario and we must put specific policies and plans in place to achieve them with regular check-ins on progress and adjustments made as further science and evidence emerges on the efficacy of different interventions.

No longer a future issue

The impacts of climate change are no longer a hypothetical, future issue. Climate change is already having profound impacts across the globe, resulting in widespread loss and damage. For example, the impact of climate change on the frequency of extreme weather events is already being widely observed in all parts of the world; 2022 was a record-breaking year for extreme weather events. The likelihood of these extreme events will only get higher with each increment of warming and it is estimated that currently nearly half of the worlds population live in “climate danger zones”.

Every little helps

We currently sit at 1.1ºC of warming against preindustrial levels. To limit warming to 1.5ºC, emissions need to be reduced by 60% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. Every bit of warming we avert has a tangible impact. This is well-illustrated by this infographic which compares climate impacts between 1.5 and 2ºC of warming. Any action we take will thus help to reduce climate impacts and help protect people and planet.

Same storm, different boats

The report highlights the stark inequity in how different communities are being impacted by climate change and underlines the importance of embedding climate justice into climate action. Climate impacts disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable communities and will continue to do so, thereby worsening poverty. For climate action to be sustainable, it is vital that a just approach is to taken to mitigation, adaptation and resilience actions.

We know what we need to do

As is stated multiple times in the report, “deep, rapid and sustained action” is what is needed. But what does action look like? The report underlines that we now have a good understanding of how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and much of the technology to support the transition already exists or is in development. However, what is lacking is the political impetus, sufficient climate finance and sharing of technology and knowledge across nations. Ambitions must therefore be underpinned by detailed plans and strategies, new climate finance must be leveraged, and the sharing of technology/knowledge must be accelerated.

We can’t afford to delay

Research has shown that the cost of a warming climate is much higher than the cost of mitigation. Despite this, public and private funding for fossil fuels is still higher than that for climate mitigation and adaptation. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of tracked climate finance is directed towards mitigation, but falls short of the levels needed to limit warming to below 2°C or to 1.5°C across all sectors and regions.

The decisive decade

We are now entering the decisive decade of climate action. This is a daunting statement, but should also be seen as an empowering moment to push forward the transformative change needed to transition to a sustainable society. The AR6 Summary Report calls attention to the scale and severity of climate impacts that are already being felt, and the costs of inaction in the future, but also underlines the opportunities to avert these changes and limit the impacts.

The report findings are therefore a rallying call. There is still time to limit climate change impacts if we invest in climate mitigation, resilience and adaptation. We must ensure that climate action is embedded across all of our activities and hold our leaders to account for delivering on commitments and ramping up action.

A move to science-led solutions-focussed action, underpinned by conditional optimism, must dominate climate action moving forwards so that we can secure a sustainable future for people, planet and nature.

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